FIPP.AI · FAIR IMPLIED PROBABILITY PRICING

Find it. Price it.
Position it.

Kalshi and Polymarket turned event contracts into a $50 billion-a-month market. FIPP is the comparison engine on top: AI agents that search the whole board, research supported contracts, and put the best ones on your watchlist.

ContractMarketFIPP fairEdgeStatus
Fed cuts in December42¢51%+9¢Watchlist
Team A wins the final61¢66%+5¢Watchlist
CPI above 3.0% (Nov)38¢36%−2¢Pass

Illustrative board. Contract names and prices are examples, not live FIPP picks.

The success story

Prediction markets went mainstream in 2026

Regulation did it. Kalshi has been a CFTC-regulated exchange since 2020, and Polymarket returned to the US as a CFTC-regulated exchange after buying QCX. That brought US dollars, identity checks and professional APIs, and the volume followed.

$50.6BKalshi + Polymarket + Polymarket US, July 2026, a monthly record [3]
9Consecutive record months for Kalshi through May 2026 [1]
~970KOpen markets counted across Kalshi and Polymarket [2]
Kalshi's monthly volume grew 2.7× in five months
Notional trading volume, $ billions, Dec 2025 – May 2026
Source: DeFi Rate prediction-market volume tracker [1][4]
The problem

Nearly a million prices. One pair of eyes.

Every open market is a probability someone else set. Most traders watch the same handful of headline contracts and never see the rest. The mispriced ones sit in the long tail, in the thousands of markets nobody has time to check.

We have seen this before.

The automation game

The top earner appears to trade by algorithm

An FT analysis of 170 million Polymarket bets by 1.2 million retail accounts found that the most profitable account, “swisstony,” made $12 million on sports markets with a high-volume strategy that appears to be algorithmic. One other top-10 account followed a similar approach; others won on a few very large single bets.

$12MProfit of the No. 1 Polymarket account, apparently algorithmic [FT]
2 of 10Top-earning accounts with high-volume, apparently algorithmic strategies [FT]
170MBets analysed across 1.2M retail accounts since April 2026 [FT]

Prediction markets are becoming an automation game. Most traders still click by hand. FIPP gives them AI agents of their own: scanning the board, researching supported contracts, and adding qualified picks to the watchlist automatically.

The precedent

Travel search solved this once already

Twenty years ago, booking a trip meant a dozen tabs and a notepad full of fares. Comparison engines searched every airline and hotel at once and put the deal on top. The flight stayed the same. Who did the searching changed.

Before comparison engines
  • Open each airline and hotel site one by one
  • Copy prices into a notepad
  • Miss the deal listed on a page you never opened
  • Hours per trip
With FIPP, for event contracts
  • Agents scan Kalshi and Polymarket together
  • Supported contracts assessed against an independent probability estimate
  • The cautious estimate is checked against price and assumed costs
  • Enable auto-add to track qualified picks within your limits
How FIPP works

Five steps, run by agents, every day

Search

Scheduled scans cover available Kalshi and Polymarket markets. Independent forecasts currently support selected Kalshi weather contracts.

Price

For supported contracts, FIPP estimates a fair probability and compares it to the price on the board.

Qualify

Picks must clear filters for edge size, liquidity and time to close.

Position

With auto-add enabled, qualified picks join your watchlist within your daily and portfolio limits.

Track

Every pick stays visible through resolution, so the record is there before you commit money.

You keep the final decision. FIPP does the searching and pricing at a scale no person can match, and you choose what to trade.

Try the math

What an edge is worth

A contract pays $1 if the event happens. If the market charges less than the true chance, the trade has positive expected value. Move the sliders to see how a few cents of mispricing adds up.

Edge found
+$21.43

Expected profit on $100, before fees

Expected value = stake × (fair probability ÷ price − 1). Excludes exchange fees. An estimate, not a guarantee: any single contract can settle at $0.
For investors

The search layer for a regulated, fast-growing market

According to an FT analysis of 170 million Polymarket bets, the most profitable account ran an apparently algorithmic, high-volume strategy. Prediction markets are becoming an automation game, and FIPP is the agent layer for everyone else.

Exchanges compete on listings. The value of a comparison layer grows with every new market they add. FIPP sits above the venues, the way travel search sat above the airlines.

The market is here

$50.6B traded in July 2026 across Kalshi and Polymarket, with nearly a million open markets to price.

The rails are regulated

Both venues are CFTC-regulated in the US, with KYC'd accounts and official trading APIs. FIPP builds on sanctioned infrastructure.

The problem grows with the market

Every new listing makes manual search harder. Agents scale with the board; people do not.

The incentives line up

FIPP is currently in free beta. Performance-based subscription protection is planned; paid checkout and automatic fee waivers are not yet active.

Get started

Let the agents do the searching

Traders: see FIPP's picks and track their record before you place a single trade. Investors: request the deck and data room through fipp.ai.